Success Meter for 2024 1st-Round NFL Rookie Quarterbacks

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    Hyoung Chang/The Denver Post
    After five teams drafted a quarterback, the Denver Broncos made their move with Bo Nix.
    B/R scouts gave the 24-year-old a third-round draft grade, but with five QBs going in the top 10 and the Las Vegas Raiders possibly eyeing a signal-caller one spot behind them, the Broncos couldn’t risk passing on Nix in hopes he would be available at pick No. 76.
    While one can make a strong case that Denver reached for Nix, it has potential personnel issues within its pass-catching group that can impact his early development.
    The Broncos must iron out differences with starting wide receiver Courtland Sutton or perhaps trade him. According to NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero, he’s skipped voluntary workouts in hopes of working out a new deal with the team.
    Moreover, wideout Tim Patrick hasn’t played in a game since the 2021 campaign because of back-to-back season-ending injuries.
    If Nix beats out Jarrett Stidham for the starting job, he may have to rely on fourth-round rookie wideout and Oregon teammate Troy Franklin, along with Josh Reynolds and Marvin Mims Jr.
    Nix has a strong rapport with Franklin, who hauled in 81 passes for 1,383 yards and 14 touchdowns last year, but Reynolds has finished just one of his seven seasons with more than 40 receptions. As a rookie, Mims showed flashes but only caught 22 passes for 377 yards and a touchdown.
    Because of injuries, Greg Dulcich wasn’t able to establish a role in head coach Sean Payton’s offense last year. Fellow tight end Adam Trautman didn’t have a prominent role in Payton’s New Orleans Saints offenses between 2020 and 2021.
    If the Broncos don’t retain Sutton, Nix would have a mediocre pass-catching group and may need to lean on the ground attack more than the other top signal-callers in the class.
    Fortunately for Nix, Payton’s passing offenses ranked 11th or higher in touchdowns between 2018 and 2021 and last season. He’s one of the league’s best play-callers, so the rookie QB may be able to do more with less.
    Nix could be a capable game manager with underwhelming passing numbers, but that won’t be enough to solidify himself as a promising quarterback with Pro Bowl/All-Pro potential.
    Success meter: Low-end starter/Backup
    College football statistics are provided by cfbstats.com.
    Player contract details courtesy of Spotrac.

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